NQ_OF_PORTFOLIO_DIAG_AVP3_TPOSECOND_TPOVA_FFRE_V1- Resolved / censored
- 92 / 6
- Net / EV
- $15,266 / $165.93
- PF / win rate
- 2.31 / 40.2%
- Trades per calendar day
- 0.36
Order-flow research packages
The corrected maximum-PnL challenger, frozen profitable AVP/TPO reference, daily-breadth diagnostics, and lifetime M1–M4 prop research are preserved as separate packages. Every portfolio result uses exact one-slot event-time arbitration; no standalone PnLs are simply summed.
Evidence boundary
Profitable all-history-seen diagnostic. No untouched holdout.
Daily-breadth package dates through 2026-08-06 were inspected; the lifetime package below extends through 2026-08-14. The portfolio exceeds one resolved trade per session on average, but 103 of 242 known sessions still have no resolved trade. Unknown and censored economics remain null and retain ownership.
diagnostic onlypromotion blockedpractice blocked
Corrected maximum historical PnL · one NQ · through 2026-08-14
frozen forward challengerM4 + V2000 + A90 + impulse
NQ_OF_PORTFOLIO_CORRECTED_MAXPNL_M4_V2000_A90_IMPULSE_20260824_V1Resolved-trade PnL$65.5k800 resolved · 0 censored · 0 unknown
Net EV / trade$81.94PF 1.48 · one NQ
Trades / session3.0888.8% active calendar coverage
Green calendar days52.7%137 green · 94 red · 29 zero
Daily-close drawdown−$3.8k21 session max duration
Worst 20 sessions−$2.3k5% daily expected shortfall −$1.3k
This is the highest-PnL corrected physical portfolio in the frozen comparison. It is profitable in every named chronological panel, but is not promoted: its impulse addition underperformed the corrected base in validation, and full trigger-state ordinary-silence semantics still require corrective replay.
Exact physical composition and accounting
not executableWhat “base + both” actually contains
Global capacity1 NQone physical slot
Admissionstrictly after owner exitequal terminal blocked · no defer
Entry / stop slippage1 tick / 1 ticktargets exact limit fills
Commission$2round trip
Risk close15:00 CTexact-contract executable quote
Contract mappinghistorical exactcurrent-contract substitution forbidden
| Sleeve | Description | Role |
|---|---|---|
M1_M4 | Corrected M4 profile/TPO/value-migration breadth | profile/TPO breadth base |
V2000 | Quote-anchor aligned absorption · S12/T20 | independent reversal sleeve |
EVENTTIME_A90 | Event-time narrow-balance delta flip · S10/T16 | all-panel-positive sparse addition |
IMPULSE_DISPEFF70 | Impulse launch FF25 · 180 seconds · S15/T45 · displacement efficiency 70% | high-frequency challenger |
Show all 13 immutable source candidate IDs
NQ_AVP_CAND_FIRST_FFRE_180_S10_T50_V1NQ_AVP_CAND_FIRST_PBR_600_S10_T30_V1NQ_AVP_CAND_SECOND_ACCEPTED_180_S10_T30_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_PRIOR_VALUE_DIRECT180_S10_T30_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_TPOEXT_SECOND_ACCEPTED60_S10_T50_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_TPOSP_SECOND_FLOWFLIP25_30_S15_T45_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_TPOVA_FIRST_FFRE600_S10_T50_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_VALUE_MIGRATION_FF25_60_S15_T45_V1NQ_OF_HYP_COMPLETED21_OUTER_A90_S15_T60_V1NQ_TPO_CAND_SECOND_ACCEPTED_180_S10_T30_V1NQ_OF_DESCRIPTIVE_COMPONENT_QUOTE_ANCHOR_ALIGNED_EXACT_C_V2000_S12_T20_20260823_V1NQ_OF_DIAG_EVENTTIME_NARROW_BALANCE_DELTA_FLIP_EXACT_REPLAY_20260818_V1|arm=real|A90|S10_T16NQ_OF_DIAG_IMPULSE_LAUNCH_FF25_180_S15_T45_QG_DISPEFF70_V1
Chronological economics
marginal validation weakerComplete portfolio remains profitable in every panel
| Panel | Sessions | Trades | PnL | EV | PF | Green / red / zero | DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| development | 102 | 306 | $28.1k | $91.68 | 1.56 | 55 / 35 / 12 | −$2.5k |
| validation | 104 | 344 | $23.5k | $68.22 | 1.39 | 57 / 37 / 10 | −$3.7k |
| final_holdout | 54 | 150 | $14.0k | $93.53 | 1.56 | 25 / 22 / 7 | −$3.8k |
| pooled | 260 | 800 | $65.5k | $81.94 | 1.48 | 137 / 94 / 29 | −$3.8k |
Component attribution under combined ownership
no retrospective component deletionPooled strength and validation weakness
| Panel | Sleeve | Trades | PnL | EV | PF | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| validation | Event-time narrow-balance delta flip · S10/T16 | 37 | $101 | $2.73 | 1.02 | 40.5% |
| validation | Impulse launch FF25 · 180 seconds · S15/T45 · displacement efficiency 70% | 112 | −$3.8k | -$34.05 | 0.86 | 23.2% |
| validation | Corrected M4 profile/TPO/value-migration breadth | 154 | $27.3k | $177.19 | 2.18 | 40.3% |
| validation | Quote-anchor aligned absorption · S12/T20 | 41 | -$107 | -$2.61 | 0.98 | 39% |
| pooled | Event-time narrow-balance delta flip · S10/T16 | 77 | $2.3k | $29.43 | 1.26 | 45.5% |
| pooled | Impulse launch FF25 · 180 seconds · S15/T45 · displacement efficiency 70% | 254 | $9.8k | $38.57 | 1.17 | 29.1% |
| pooled | Corrected M4 profile/TPO/value-migration breadth | 361 | $49.2k | $136.32 | 1.86 | 35.7% |
| pooled | Quote-anchor aligned absorption · S12/T20 | 108 | $4.3k | $39.57 | 1.31 | 46.3% |
Impulse DISPEFF70 direction audit
| Panel | Direction | Trades | PnL | EV | PF | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| development | long | 52 | $5.5k | $105.79 | 1.52 | 34.6% |
| development | short | 44 | $3.1k | $70.5 | 1.33 | 31.8% |
| validation | long | 58 | −$5.0k | -$86.4 | 0.66 | 19% |
| validation | short | 54 | $1.2k | $22.17 | 1.1 | 27.8% |
| final_holdout | long | 24 | −$1.4k | -$57.63 | 0.76 | 20.8% |
| final_holdout | short | 22 | $6.4k | $290.5 | 2.83 | 50% |
| pooled | long | 134 | -$893 | -$6.66 | 0.97 | 25.4% |
| pooled | short | 120 | $10.7k | $89.08 | 1.42 | 33.3% |
Impulse DISPEFF70 is the clear validation problem: its validation component lost −$3.8k, driven by 58 impulse-long trades losing −$5.0k. Pooled impulse shorts earned $10.7k, while pooled impulse longs lost -$893. Removing that side now would be post-outcome subgroup rescue; any exclusion must receive a new immutable ID and prospective validation.
Synchronized 10,000-path block inference
five-session blocksStandalone robustness versus marginal uncertainty
| Panel | Standalone 95% interval | P(standalone > 0) | Marginal vs base | Marginal 95% interval | P(marginal > 0) | DD P95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| development | $12.7k to $47.7k | 100% | $11.0k | $1.3k to $22.7k | 98.9% | −$3.9k |
| validation | $7.5k to $38.3k | 99.9% | −$3.9k | −$16.4k to $9.6k | 29.3% | −$6.2k |
| final_holdout | $2.0k to $32.1k | 98.8% | $5.7k | −$4.3k to $18.2k | 87.8% | −$6.5k |
| pooled | $39.0k to $94.8k | 100% | $12.7k | −$7.4k to $33.3k | 88.4% | −$7.1k |
month stability12 / 13 positiveworst -$581 · leave-best-out $54.9k
quarter stability5 / 5 positiveworst $5.9k · leave-best-out $43.4k
Rolling 20 sessions94.6% positiveworst −$2.3k · latest $7.4k
Rolling 40 sessions100% positiveworst $345 · latest $11.0k
Rolling 60 sessions100% positiveworst $3.9k · latest $14.9k
Fixed cutoff recency · descriptive only
not a selection ruleExact last 5, 10, and 30 admitted sessions
| Window | Trades | PnL | EV | PF | Green / red / zero | Exact dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions | 10 | −$1.1k | -$108 | 0.48 | 1 / 3 / 1 | 2026-08-10, 2026-08-11, 2026-08-12, 2026-08-13, 2026-08-14 |
| 10 sessions | 22 | $4.4k | $200.95 | 2.49 | 5 / 4 / 1 | 2026-08-03, 2026-08-04, 2026-08-05, 2026-08-06, 2026-08-07, 2026-08-10, 2026-08-11, 2026-08-12, 2026-08-13, 2026-08-14 |
| 30 sessions | 88 | $11.3k | $128.8 | 1.79 | 17 / 12 / 1 | 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07, 2026-07-08, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-10, 2026-07-13, 2026-07-14, 2026-07-15, 2026-07-16, 2026-07-17, 2026-07-20, 2026-07-21, 2026-07-22, 2026-07-23, 2026-07-24, 2026-07-27, 2026-07-28, 2026-07-29, 2026-07-30, 2026-07-31, 2026-08-03, 2026-08-04, 2026-08-05, 2026-08-06, 2026-08-07, 2026-08-10, 2026-08-11, 2026-08-12, 2026-08-13, 2026-08-14 |
Generic fixed-EOD prop sensitivity · block 5 · 252 sessions
not official firm rulesAccount-path proxy
Evaluation pass87.6%12.4% fixed-EOD failure proxy
Funded survival87%intraday trailing unsupported
Payout eligible87.3%10,000 paths
Funded payout EV$11.0kafter generic split and fees
Repeated-program EV$11.3kgeneric evaluation-to-funded proxy
- Impulse DISPEFF70 contributed -$3,814 in validation; impulse longs were 58 trades for -$5,011, EV -$86.40, PF 0.663.
- The complete portfolio stayed profitable in validation, but its marginal result versus corrected base was -$3,904.
- Removing a side or component after seeing these outcomes would require a new immutable candidate and forward validation.
- Full trigger-state ordinary-silence semantics remain uncorrected; post-entry outcomes alone were corrected.
- ProjectX completed-bar polling cannot reproduce the required Databento TBBO inputs.
Robustness report SHA-256: d7811d35…b500eb
Lifetime headline package · one NQ · through 2026-08-14
alternative overlapping portfoliosM1–M4 resolved-trade PnL
M1 resolved-trade PnL$30.3k280 resolved · 18 censored · complete-known $29.9k · PF 1.7
M2 resolved-trade PnL$41.5k343 resolved · 27 censored · complete-known $41.6k · PF 1.75
M3 resolved-trade PnL$43.7k361 resolved · 33 censored · complete-known $40.0k · PF 1.75
M4 resolved-trade PnL$41.3k339 resolved · 26 censored · complete-known $40.7k · PF 1.75
M1–M4 are alternative one-global-NQ-slot portfolio constructions with overlapping physical events. Their PnLs must not be summed. Resolved-trade and complete-known-day PnL remain separate because censored trades can make a session economically unknown.
Earlier daily-breadth package · through 2026-08-06
not M1–M4 lifetimeLegacy breadth diagnostic metrics
These cards describe the earlier extended daily-breadth diagnostic retained for lineage, Monte Carlo, and policy analysis. They are not the lifetime M1, M2, M3, or M4 headline totals shown above.
Breadth resolved-trade PnL$29.8k272 resolved · 18 censored
Breadth net EV / trade$109.65PF 1.71 · 33.8% win rate
Breadth trades / session1.0557.4% active known-session coverage
Breadth known-segment DD−$2.4kDaily-close only · not intraday trailing DD
Final breadth diagnostic
not a formal candidateFrequency, green days, and payoff geometry
NQ_OF_PORTFOLIO_DIAG_DAILY_BREADTH_PRIOR_TPOVA_TPOSP_TPOEXT_V1Active known sessions139 / 24257.4%
Green active / calendar50.4% / 28.9%calendar includes flat known sessions
Average winner / loser$779.52 / -$232.723.35 payoff ratio
Targets / stops92 / 180median hold 42.52 seconds
Max losing streaks14 trades / 4 dayshistorical path
Resolved / complete-day PnL$29.8k / $29.4kkept separate for unknown-day safety
Chronological design panels
all now inspectedPositive in every named period
| Panel | Trades | PnL | EV | PF | Trades/session | Green active | DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| development | 100 | $8.4k | $83.7 | 1.54 | 0.96 | 42.9% | −$1.7k |
| validation | 120 | $17.5k | $145.79 | 1.98 | 1.13 | 55.6% | −$2.4k |
| final-design | 52 | $4.0k | $76.17 | 1.47 | 1.06 | 51.9% | −$1.7k |
Exact marginal re-arbitration
one global NQ slotWhat each independent universe contributes
| Added sleeve | Trade Δ | PnL Δ | Active-day Δ | Green-day Δ | DD Δ | Trades/session Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior RTH value edge · direct accepted break | +69 | $4.7k | +43 | +20 | -$641 | +0.27 |
| Overnight TPO value edge · failed-break flow flip | +80 | $6.6k | +26 | +11 | -$697 | +0.31 |
| Overnight TPO single print · second-touch flow flip | +45 | $4.8k | +12 | +10 | -$204 | +0.17 |
| Overnight TPO profile extreme · second accepted break | +5 | $1.8k | +0 | +3 | -$0 | +0.02 |
Reflected controls · unpaired populations
do not overclaimLevel specificity remains unresolved
The value-edge and especially single-print controls also profit. This suggests trigger and flow state may carry edge independently of exact level placement; the real arms remain better in aggregate, but these comparisons do not prove causal level specificity.
| Sleeve | Real trades | Real PnL | Real EV | Control trades | Control PnL | Real − control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior RTH value edge · direct accepted break | 71 | $5.1k | $71.94 | 46 | −$1.6k | $6.7k |
| Overnight TPO value edge · failed-break flow flip | 86 | $7.3k | $85.27 | 73 | $374 | $7.0k |
| Overnight TPO single print · second-touch flow flip | 53 | $3.8k | $71.58 | 54 | $2.3k | $1.5k |
| Overnight TPO profile extreme · second accepted break | 10 | $1.5k | $150.5 | 15 | −$2.0k | $3.5k |
10,000 paths · original non-circular 10-session blocks
unknown days sampled: 0252-session shared-known Monte Carlo
Terminal mean / P05$28.7k / $16.4k100% positive
Median / P95 DD−$3.3k / −$5.5k61.2% reach $3k DD
Trades/session P05–P950.95–1.27median 1.11
Active sessions P05–P9551.6%–65.1%frequency remains clustered
Green calendar P05–P9526.2%–35.7%median 31%
Shared known sessions242blocks known for every variant
Generic fixed-EOD practice research · not official firm rules
not authorizationStage-aware prop-program policy
NQ_OF_ACCOUNT_POLICY_DIAG_PRIOR10_EVAL_DAILY_EXTENDED_FUNDED_V1Use the lower-risk Prior10 union during the generic evaluation stage, then activate extended breadth after the generic funded transition. This preserves more evaluation safety while retaining most payout throughput.
Evaluation source pass95.7%4.28% fixed-EOD failure proxy
First payout99.1%1.18 mean eval attempts
Mean payouts4.030.13 funded failures
Mean gross / fees$8.0k / −$1.1kone 252-session program
Mean / median net cash$6.1k / $6.1kafter generic fees
Net cash P05$2.2k99.1% profitable-program proxy
Lifetime package · one NQ · through 2026-08-14
research proxy onlyM1–M4 lifetime prop research through 2026-08-14
All available history through 2026-08-14; six-session prospective block included; no untouched holdout remains. Own-support totals have different unknown-day masks, so synchronized comparison uses the 236-session four-way-common-known support in the PDFs.
| Sleeve | Resolved / censored | Resolved PnL | Complete-known PnL | Known / unknown | Daily-close DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 280 / 18 | $30.3k | $29.9k | 248 / 17 | −$2.4k |
| M2 | 343 / 27 | $41.5k | $41.6k | 242 / 23 | −$3.1k |
| M3 | 361 / 33 | $43.7k | $40.0k | 236 / 29 | −$3.3k |
| M4 | 339 / 26 | $41.3k | $40.7k | 243 / 22 | −$2.8k |
Generic fixed-EOD prop outputs are not official firm rules. Intraday trailing drawdown is unsupported because no complete synchronized causal account-equity path exists; unknown and censored economics remain null, never zero-filled.
Executive SHA-256
1aa4874f…2b54916 deterministic pagesExhaustive SHA-256
989a7c0e…fcb48c48 deterministic pagesHistorical / prospective259 / 6265 calendar sessions
Research closure update · 2026-08-16
existing portfolios unchangedNo new sleeve was added to M1–M4
The opening micro-profile continuation, developing volume-node lifecycle, and prior-RTH TPO single-print studies were completed under new immutable identities. Control failures or negative economic/stability results blocked every proposed addition. The lifetime metrics and PDFs therefore remain current through the unchanged market cutoff of 2026-08-14; rejected research is not promoted into a strategy card or portfolio component.
Frozen lineage · unchanged
preservedOriginal formal reference and value-area diagnostic
NQ_ORDERFLOW_CAND_PORTFOLIO_AVP3_TPOSECOND_V1- Resolved / censored
- 73 / 6
- Net / EV
- $11,994 / $164.3
- PF / win rate
- 2.34 / 42.5%
- Trades per calendar day
- 0.28
Original frozen-reference qualification sequence
7 gates failingWhat is still required
| Criterion | Required | Observed | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Current History SeenEvery available session was already visible during research; this is a disclosure, not validation. | true | true | pass |
| Current Forward Days ExistNo current forward days exist after this freeze. | >0 | 0 | fail |
| Minimum History Sessions | 60 | 259 | pass |
| Minimum Resolved Forward Trades Overall | 30 | 0 | fail |
| Minimum Forward Trades Each Retained Sleeve | 5 | {"NQ_AVP_CAND_FIRST_FFRE_180_S10_T50_V1":0,"NQ_AVP_CAND_FIRST_PBR_600_S10_T30_V1":0,"NQ_AVP_CAND_SECOND_ACCEPTED_180_S10_T30_V1":0,"NQ_TPO_CAND_SECOND_ACCEPTED_180_S10_T30_V1":0} | fail |
| No Censor Treated As Zero | true | {"unknown_days":6,"zero_filled":false} | pass |
| Net Ev Trade Bootstrap Lower 95 Positive | >0.0 | 64.3013698630137 | pass |
| Opportunity Day Block Bootstrap Lower 95 Positive | >0.0 | 22.36488095238095 | pass |
| Profit Factor | 1.25 | 2.341010733452594 | pass |
| Known Segment Daily Close DrawdownUnknown days split the observed daily-close path; intraday trailing drawdown is unsupported. | <=1500.0 | 858 | pass |
| No Split Month Contract Direction Fatal Concentration | true | [{"dimension":"split","fatal_concentration":false,"group":"validation","positive_gross_share":0.400038208042793},{"dimension":"month","fatal_concentration":false,"group":"2026-07","positive_gross_share":0.19046709332314452},{"dimension":"contract_direction","fatal_concentration":false,"group":"NQM6|long","positive_gross_share":0.1715541121406056}] | pass |
| Best 5 Day Concentration | <=0.5 or preregistered exception | 0.33781564360500926 | pass |
| Cost Stress Remains Positive | true | {"additional_cost_per_trade_usd":40,"stressed_net_pnl_usd":9074} | pass |
| Level Specific Real Minus Reflected Control Ci Lower PositiveThe exact common-parent real-minus-reflected-control comparison is positive in aggregate, but both lower confidence bounds cross below zero. | >0 | {"calendar_day_block_mean_lower_95_usd":-14.6078373015873,"common_parent_pairs":190,"paired_parent_iid_mean_lower_95_usd":-26.589473684210525,"real_minus_control_pnl_usd":1634} | fail |
| Live Reproducibility ResolvedTBBO causal feature and fill reproducibility against a live broker path remains unresolved. | true | false | fail |
| Execution Plugin Exists | true | false | fail |
| Practice Authorized | true | false | fail |